Article ID: | iaor201524749 |
Volume: | 23 |
Issue: | 7 |
Start Page Number: | 1146 |
End Page Number: | 1160 |
Publication Date: | Jul 2014 |
Journal: | Production and Operations Management |
Authors: | Siemsen Enno, Kremer Mirko, Moritz Brent |
Keywords: | time series: forecasting methods, management, performance, information |
This research analyzes how individual differences affect performance in judgmental time‐series forecasting. Decision makers with the ability to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberation, as measured by the cognitive reflection test, tend to have lower forecast errors. This relationship holds when controlling for intelligence. Furthermore, forecast errors increase for very fast or very slow decisions. We provide evidence that forecast performance can be improved by manipulating decision speed.