Logic and probabilistic risk models for management of innovations system of country

In the present paper, we discuss a strategy of the country development, combining the management of the innovations system and the creation of logical probabilistic (LP) risk models in socio‐economic systems. The aim of the strategy is to reduce the losses from corruption and drug addiction and increase the profits from socio‐economic systems. The global innovations index is analysed and its methodological drawbacks are revealed. The logical probabilistic innovative index is developed (LP‐model) and its advantages are described. The development of the innovative technology of risk management in structurally complex systems is analysed. We have developed the hybrid LP‐model of the success of solving the innovation problem in which the subjects‐events are represented by the state, business, banks, scholars and public opinion. We have also developed the indicative LP‐model of the failure risk of the innovations system of the country. We have demonstrated that for the innovations to appear we have to carry out a structural reform of education, science and economy of Russia. It has been proved that it is impossible to solve the difficult socio‐economic problems of Russia without the involvement of scholars and public opinion.