Article ID: | iaor20125584 |
Volume: | 58 |
Issue: | 9 |
Start Page Number: | 1596 |
End Page Number: | 1613 |
Publication Date: | Sep 2012 |
Journal: | Management Science |
Authors: | Dillon Robin L, Tinsley Catherine H, Cronin Matthew A |
Keywords: | learning, behaviour, risk |
In the aftermath of many natural and man‐made disasters, people often wonder why those affected were underprepared, especially when the disaster was the result of known or regularly occurring hazards (e.g., hurricanes). We study one contributing factor: prior near‐miss experiences. Near misses are events that have some nontrivial expectation of ending in disaster but, by chance, do not. We demonstrate that when near misses are interpreted as disasters that