Evaluating the impact of advertising media plans: A model of consumer purchase dynamics using single-source data

The authors propose a model to analyze the impact of advertising media plans and point-of-purchase marketing variables on a brand’s market performance. The present model integrates brand choice, purchase incidence, and exposure behavior within a nonstationary stochastic framework. Moreover it considers various aspects of consumer heterogeneity including individual differences in loyalty levels, purchase rates, and exposure probabilities for a population of consumers. The integrated model provides a relationship of advertising exposures from media plans, and other marketing variables, to measure of a brand’s performance that include market share, penetration and depth of repeat patterns over time. In this paper, the authors focus on a multi-brand model formulation and stress its application to the analysis of advertising media plans. Based on single-source UPC scanner panel data for a frequently purchased product category, they provide an empirical test of the model. In this context, the present analyses show that the model provides a good fit to the empirical data as well as accurate forecasts in hold-out predictive tests.