Modelling match outcomes and decision support for setting a final innings target in test cricket

This paper considers the problem of timing the declaration of the third innings in test cricket. Data on the outcomes of recent test matches are analysed in order to develop simple decision support tools. The first of these tools presents match outcome probabilities given the position of the match at a potential declaration point. These probabilities are determined using a multinomial logistic regression model that is fitted to the test match data. This idea is then extended to consider progress towards a declaration – match outcome probabilities are considered as a function of target aimed for and run-rate. The decision tools have been implemented on a spreadsheet and example calculations are presented. The modelling described has the potential for practical use in test matches.