Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model+50% manager

The authors focus on ways of combining simple database models with managerial intuition. They present a model and method for isolating managerial intuition. For five different business forecasting situations, the present results indicate that a combination of model and manager always outperforms either of these decision inputs in isolation, an average R² increase of 0.09 (16%) above the best single decision input in cross-validated model analyses. The authors assess the validity of an equal weighting heuristic, 50% model+50% manager, and then discuss why the present results might differ from previous research on expert judgment.