Article ID: | iaor2000933 |
Country: | United States |
Volume: | 44 |
Issue: | 11, Part 1 |
Publication Date: | Nov 1998 |
Journal: | Management Science |
Authors: | Hanssens Dominique M., Dekimpe Marnik G., Gucht Linda M. Van De, Powers Keiko, I. |
Keywords: | law & law enforcement, politics, statistics: general |
We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment. A flexible split-hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed. The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over 800 addicts. Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, which suggests the need for aftercare, (2) the value of preventing a teenager or young adult from initiating, and (3) the possibility of identifying high-risk groups, both in terms of age of first daily use and in terms of ethnicity.