Journal: Decision Analysis

Found 191 papers in total
Do Bayesians Learn Their Way Out of Ambiguity?
Do Bayesians Learn Their Way Out of Ambiguity?
2011,
In standard models of Bayesian learning, agents reduce their uncertainty about an...
Target‐Hardening Decisions Based on Uncertain Multiattribute Terrorist Utility
Target‐Hardening Decisions Based on Uncertain Multiattribute Terrorist Utility
2011,
We present a game‐theoretic model to explore how uncertainty about terrorist...
A Practical Procedure for Customizable One‐Way Sensitivity Analysis in Additive Value Models
A Practical Procedure for Customizable One‐Way Sensitivity Analysis in Additive Value Models
2011,
Although a wide variety of sensitivity analysis methods for additive value models...
A Multiattribute Sealed‐Bid Procurement Auction with Multiple Budgets for Government Vendor Selection
A Multiattribute Sealed‐Bid Procurement Auction with Multiple Budgets for Government Vendor Selection
2011,
This paper offers a new approach to government vendor selection decisions in major...
The Multiattribute Utility Tree
The Multiattribute Utility Tree
2011,
This paper introduces the notion of a multiattribute utility tree. This graphical...
Quantile‐Parameterized Distributions
Quantile‐Parameterized Distributions
2011,
This paper introduces a new class of continuous probability distributions that are...
A Discrete Time Approach for Modeling Two‐Factor Mean‐Reverting Stochastic Processes
A Discrete Time Approach for Modeling Two‐Factor Mean‐Reverting Stochastic Processes
2011,
Two‐factor stochastic processes have been developed to more accurately describe...
Consistency Among Elicitation Techniques for Intertemporal Choice: A Within‐Subjects Investigation of the Anomalies
Consistency Among Elicitation Techniques for Intertemporal Choice: A Within‐Subjects Investigation of the Anomalies
2011,
The equivalence of two elicitation methods (sequences and matching) has been assumed...
Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation
Deterring the Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons in Container Freight Through Detection and Retaliation
2011,
Concerns about terrorists smuggling nuclear bombs into the United States in container...
Decomposing the Cross Derivatives of a Multiattribute Utility Function into Risk Attitude and Value
Decomposing the Cross Derivatives of a Multiattribute Utility Function into Risk Attitude and Value
2011,
The cross derivatives of a multiattribute utility function play an important role in...
Using Bayes' Rule to Update an Event's Probabilities Based on the Outcomes of Partially Similar Events
Using Bayes' Rule to Update an Event's Probabilities Based on the Outcomes of Partially Similar Events
2011,
There is a widely known Bayesian solution to the problem of updating the probability...
Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment
Aggregating Large Sets of Probabilistic Forecasts by Weighted Coherent Adjustment
2011,
Probability forecasts in complex environments can benefit from combining the estimates...
Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV‐Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter?
Whether to Retest the Lipids of HIV‐Infected Patients: How Much Does Fasting Bias Matter?
2011,
This paper aids in the diagnosis and treatment of lipid abnormalities by enhancing...
Partial‐Kelly Strategies and Expected Utility: Small‐Edge Asymptotics
Partial‐Kelly Strategies and Expected Utility: Small‐Edge Asymptotics
2011,
Partial‐Kelly strategies, proposed because full‐Kelly strategies that...
Psychological Heuristics for Making Inferences: Definition, Performance, and the Emerging Theory and Practice
Psychological Heuristics for Making Inferences: Definition, Performance, and the Emerging Theory and Practice
2011,
Laypeople as well as professionals such as business managers and medical doctors often...
Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program
Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program
2011,
Finding the best national strategy to prevent or delay a country from acquiring...
Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T‐Period Game
Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T‐Period Game
2011,
We analyze how a government allocates its resources between attacking to downgrade a...
Playing Squash Against Ralph Keeney: Should Weaker Players Always Prefer Shorter Games?
Playing Squash Against Ralph Keeney: Should Weaker Players Always Prefer Shorter Games?
2011,
In games such as squash, it is generally assumed that weaker players maximize their...
Darden's Luckiest Student: Lessons from a High‐Stakes Risk Experiment
Darden's Luckiest Student: Lessons from a High‐Stakes Risk Experiment
2010,
This paper reports on two high‐stakes events in which a randomly selected...
Scoring Rules and Decision Analysis Education
Scoring Rules and Decision Analysis Education
2010,
Experiential learning is perhaps the most effective way to teach. One example is the...
Eliciting Patients' Revealed Preferences: An Inverse Markov Decision Process Approach
Eliciting Patients' Revealed Preferences: An Inverse Markov Decision Process Approach
2010,
Estimating patient preferences over various health states is an important problem in...
Cost Effectiveness of On‐Site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention
Cost Effectiveness of On‐Site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention
2010,
A chlorine tank truck attack could cause thousands of fatalities. As a means of...
Paradoxes in Learning and the Marginal Value of Information
Paradoxes in Learning and the Marginal Value of Information
2010,
We consider the Bayesian ranking and selection problem, in which one wishes to...
Improving the generation of decision objectives
Improving the generation of decision objectives
2010,
Real decision makers exhibit significant shortcomings in the generation of objectives...
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