System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran

The Zayandeh‐Rud River basin, Iran, is projected to face spatiotemporally heterogeneous temperature increase and precipitation reduction that will decrease water supply by mid‐century. With projected increase (0.70–1.03°C) in spring temperature and reduction (6–55%) in winter precipitation, the upper Zayandeh‐Rud sub‐basin, the main source of renewable water supply, will likely become warmer and drier. In the lower sub‐basin, 1.1–1.5°C increase in temperature and 11–31% decrease in annual precipitation are likely. A system dynamics model was used to analyze adaptation strategies taking into account feedbacks between water resources development and biophysical and socioeconomic sub‐systems. Results suggest that infrastructural improvements, rigorous water demand management (e.g., replacing high water demand crops such as rice, corn, and alfalfa), and ecosystem‐based regulatory prioritization, complemented by supply augmentation can temporarily alleviate water stress in a basin that is essentially governed by the Limits to Growth archetype.