Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: The relative performance of judgementally revised versus non-revised forecasts

Judgemental revision of sales forecasts: The relative performance of judgementally revised versus non-revised forecasts

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Article ID: iaor19931674
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 11
Issue: 6
Start Page Number: 569
End Page Number: 576
Publication Date: Sep 1992
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Keywords: marketing
Abstract:

The judgemental revision of sales forecasts is an issue which is receiving increasing attention in the forecasting literature. This paper compares the performance of forecasts after revision by managers with that of the forecasts which were accepted by them without revision. The data set consists of sales forecasting data from an industrial company, spanning six quarterly periods and relating to some 900 individual products. The findings show that, in general, the improvements made by managers bring the forecast errors of revised forecasts more into line with non-revised forecasts, but the change is often marginal, and the best result is equivalence between revised and non-revised forecasts.

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