A better project performance prediction model using fuzzy time series and data envelopment analysis

A better project performance prediction model using fuzzy time series and data envelopment analysis

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Article ID: iaor20163418
Volume: 67
Issue: 10
Start Page Number: 1274
End Page Number: 1287
Publication Date: Oct 2016
Journal: J Oper Res Soc
Authors: ,
Keywords: performance, simulation, statistics: data envelopment analysis, management, time series: forecasting methods
Abstract:

Earned value management (EVM) is a critical project management methodology that evaluates and predicts project performance from cost and schedule perspectives. The novel theoretical framework presented in this paper estimates future performance of a project based on the past performance data. The model benefits from a fuzzy time series forecasting model in the estimation process. Furthermore, fuzzy‐based estimation is developed using linguistic terms to interpret different possible conditions of projects. Eventually, data envelopment analysis is applied to determine the superior model for forecasting of project performance. Multiple illustrative cases and simulated data have been used for comparative analysis and to illustrate the applicability of theoretical model to real situations. Contrary to EVM‐based approach, which assumes the future performance is the same as the past, the proposed model can greatly assist project managers in more realistically assessing prospective performance of projects and thereby taking necessary and on‐time appropriate actions.

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