| Article ID: | iaor20162961 |
| Volume: | 25 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page Number: | 120 |
| End Page Number: | 133 |
| Publication Date: | Aug 2016 |
| Journal: | International Journal of Services and Operations Management |
| Authors: | Chaharsooghi S Kamal, Rezaei Mohsen |
| Keywords: | government, petroleum, time series: forecasting methods, energy |
Although Iran has rich reserves of oil and gas, it should not only rely on these resources and should take policies to develop renewable energies (REs). This study developed two forecasting models (ANN and ARIMA) to estimate the renewable energy generation of Iran. After comparison of the developed models, the best model is chosen to predict the renewable energy generation by 2015. Then the prediction is compared with government plan by the end of the Fifth Five‐Year Economic Development Plan. The results indicated that RE generation will increase, but, the government will not meet its objectives of producing 5% of total electric power generation through RE resources.