Mechanisms to Induce Buyer Forecasting: Do Suppliers Always Benefit from Better Forecasting?

In this study, we consider a supplier's contract offerings to a buyer who may obtain improved forecasts for her demand over time. We investigate how the supplier can take advantage of the buyer's better forecasts and what kind of contracts he should offer to the buyer in order to maximize his profits. We model a natural forecast evolution where the buyer can obtain a more accurate forecast closer to the selling season. We assume there is information asymmetry between the buyer and the supplier at all times in that the buyer understands her demand better than the supplier. Three types of contracts that the supplier can offer are considered: (1) one where a contract is offered before the buyer has a chance to obtain improved forecasts, (2) one where a contract is offered after the buyer has obtained improved forecasts, and (3) a contingent (dynamic) contract which offers an initial contract to the buyer before she obtains improved forecasts, followed by a later contract (contingent on the initial contract) offered after improved forecasts have been obtained. We consider two scenarios: (1) where the supplier is certain that the buyer can obtain more accurate forecasts over time, and (2) where the supplier is uncertain about the buyer's forecasting capability (or forecasting cost). In the first scenario, we show that among the three types of contracts, the contingent contract is always the most profitable for the supplier. Furthermore, using the contingent contract, the supplier always benefits from higher accuracy of the buyer's demand forecasts. In the second scenario, we explicitly model the supplier's level of certainty about the buyer's capability of obtaining better forecasts, and explore how the supplier can design contracts to induce the buyer to obtain better forecasts when she is capable.