On the use of conservatism in risk assessments

On the use of conservatism in risk assessments

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Article ID: iaor201530406
Volume: 146
Issue: 6
Start Page Number: 33
End Page Number: 38
Publication Date: Feb 2016
Journal: Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Authors:
Keywords: judgement, sensitivity analysis
Abstract:

  • The paper clarifies the meaning of conservatism in risk assessments.
  • It is shown that a conservative policy has severe shortcomings.
  • It is concluded that conservatism should be avoided in risk assessments.
  • ‘Best judgements’ should be the ruling thinking.
  • Sensitivity analyses and strength of knowledge judgements are required.
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