Older drivers’ risks of at-fault motor vehicle collisions

In aging societies, increasing numbers of older drivers are involved in motor vehicle collisions (MVCs), and preserving their safety is a growing concern. In this study, we focused on whether older drivers were more likely to cause MVCs and injuries than drivers in other age groups. To do so we compared at‐fault MVC incidence and resulting injury risks by drivers’ ages, using data from Japan, a country with a rapidly aging population. The at‐fault MVC incidence was calculated based on distance traveled made for non‐commercial purposes, and the injury risks posed to at‐fault drivers and other road users per at‐fault MVCs. We used MVC data for 2010 from the National Police Agency of Japan and driving exposure data from the Nationwide Person Trip Survey conducted by a Japanese governmental ministry in 2010. The at‐fault MVC incidence showed a U‐shaped curve across the drivers’ ages, where teenage and the oldest drivers appeared to be the highest risk groups in terms of causing MVCs, and the incidence was higher for female drivers after age 25. The injury risk older drivers posed to other vehicle occupants because of their at‐fault MVCs was lower than for drivers in other age groups, while their own injury risk appeared much higher. As the number of older drivers is increasing, efforts to reduce their at‐fault MVCs appear justified.