Voting Under Uncertainty: A Stochastic Framework for Analyzing Group Decision Making Problems

Water resources policy making often involves consideration of a broader scope of environmental, economic, and social issues. This inevitably complicates policy making since consensus among multiple stakeholders with different interests is needed to implement decisions. This work employs several practical and popular voting methods to solve a multi‐stakeholder hydro‐environmental management problem. Conventionally, voting methods or social choice rules have been applied for consensus development in small groups and elections. This work combines voting methods with a Monte‐Carlo selection, in order to help with social choice making under uncertainty. This process is intended to aid decision‐makers with understanding of the risks associated with potential decision alternatives. The Sacramento‐San Joaquin Delta’s water export conflict is solved here as a benchmark problem to illustrate the proposed framework for social decision making and analysis under uncertainty.