Piecewise linear regression techniques to analyse the timing of head coach dismissals in Dutch soccer clubs

The key question in research on dismissals of head coaches in sports clubs is not whether they should happen but when they will happen. This paper applies piecewise linear regression to advance our understanding of the timing of head coach dismissals. Essentially, the regression sacrifices degrees of freedom for increased possibilities of interpretation. In the empirical part, we show that badly performing clubs tend to wait for clear evidence before dismissing a head coach. Dutch soccer clubs only dismiss head coaches during the soccer season when a club loses a match it should not have. We also find that once the decision to dismiss the incumbent head coach has been made, clubs quickly tend to appoint a new one, possibly by attracting an interim coach.