Prerelease demand forecasting for motion pictures using functional shape analysis of virtual stock markets

Prerelease demand forecasting for motion pictures using functional shape analysis of virtual stock markets

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Article ID: iaor20104607
Volume: 29
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 568
End Page Number: 579
Publication Date: May 2010
Journal: Marketing Science
Authors: ,
Keywords: marketing, forecasting: applications
Abstract:

Prerelease demand forecasting is one of the most crucial yet difficult tasks facing marketers in the $60 billion motion picture industry. We propose functional shape analysis (FSA) of virtual stock markets (VSMs) to address this long-standing challenge. In VSMs, prices of a movie's stock reflect the dynamic demand expectations prior to the movie's release. Using FSA, we identify a small number of distinguishing shapes, e.g., the last-moment velocity spurt, that carry information about a movie's future demand and produce early and accurate prerelease forecasts.

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