An elicitation procedure for the generalized trapezoidal distribution with a uniform central stage

An elicitation procedure for the generalized trapezoidal distribution with a uniform central stage

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Article ID: iaor200945310
Country: United States
Volume: 4
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 156
End Page Number: 166
Publication Date: Sep 2007
Journal: Decision Analysis
Authors: , , ,
Keywords: probability
Abstract:

Recent advances in computation technology for decision/simulation and uncertainty analyses have revived interest in the triangular distribution and its use to describe uncertainty of bounded input phenomena. The trapezoidal distribution is a generalization of the triangular distribution that allows for the specification of the modal value by means of a range of values rather than a single point estimate. Whereas the trapezoidal and the triangular distributions are restricted to linear geometric forms in the successive stages of the distribution, the generalized trapezoidal (GT) distribution allows for a nonlinear behavior at its tails and a linear incline (or decline) in the central stage. In this paper we develop two novel elicitation procedures for the parameters of a special case of the GT family by restricting ourselves to a uniform (horizontal) central stage in accordance with the central stage of the original trapezoidal distribution.

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