Why is long-horizon equity less risky? A duration-based explanation of the value premium

Why is long-horizon equity less risky? A duration-based explanation of the value premium

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Article ID: iaor2009764
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 62
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 55
End Page Number: 92
Publication Date: Feb 2007
Journal: Journal of Finance
Authors: ,
Keywords: risk
Abstract:

We propose a dynamic risk-based model that captures the value premium. Firms are modeled as long-lived assets distinguished by the timing of cash flows. The stochastic discount factor is specified so that shocks to aggregate dividends are priced, but shocks to the discount rate are not, The model implies that growth firms covary more with the discount rate than do value firms, which covary more with cash flows. When calibrated to explain aggregate stock market behavior, the model accounts for the observed value premium, the high Sharpe ratios on value firms, and the poor performance of the CAPM.

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