A spatial high-resolution model of the dynamics of agricultural land use

An area model is presented for agricultural land use, based on a generalized linear mixed model. This model is spatially explicit and dynamic and, although it uses aggregated data, allows for heterogeneity of behavior among individual farmers. The parameters of the fixed component of the model are obtained using an estimation equations approach, and the structure of spatiotemporal correlation is assessed using empirical semivariograms. The model is illustrated using as an example the dynamics of agricultural land use in the Lower Guadalquivir area in Spain. A simulation study indicates that the model gives poor results if the heterogeneity of individual behavior and spatiotemporal autocorrelation are ignored.