Article ID: | iaor20084647 |
Country: | United Kingdom |
Volume: | 14 |
Issue: | 1/3 |
Start Page Number: | 5 |
End Page Number: | 20 |
Publication Date: | Jan 2006 |
Journal: | Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis |
Authors: | Montibeller Gilberto, Gummer Haidee, Tumidei Daniele |
Keywords: | risk |
The integrated use of scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an in-depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright suggests the use of scenario planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework.