Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice

Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice

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Article ID: iaor20084647
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 14
Issue: 1/3
Start Page Number: 5
End Page Number: 20
Publication Date: Jan 2006
Journal: Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
Authors: , ,
Keywords: risk
Abstract:

The integrated use of scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been advocated as a powerful combination for providing decision support in strategic decisions. Scenario planning helps decision makers in devising strategies and thinking about possible future scenarios; while MCDA can support an in-depth performance evaluation of each strategy, as well as in the design of more robust and better options. One of the frameworks proposed recently, by Goodwin & Wright suggests the use of scenario planning with multi-attribute value theory, a mathematically simple, yet extensively researched and widely employed multi-criteria method. However, so far, such framework has been presented only using hypothetical problems. In this paper, we describe two case studies where this approach was used to support real-world strategic decisions. We discuss the challenges and limitations we encountered in applying it and suggest some possible improvements that could be made to such framework.

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