Combining decision tree and multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) for selecting a country for a global manufacturing facility

The paper presents a multi-phase approach for selecting a country in which to locate a global manufacturing facility. An influence diagram is used to frame the decision. A decision tree then analyzes uncertainties regarding cost and generates a risk profile. The risk profile becomes one of the measures in an MAUT model that incorporate a wide range of factors. This sequential approach of using the output from a decision tree as input to MAUT is demonstrated with an example involving an auto supplier locating a new plant in one of five countries. Three decision makers were interviewed to determine the weights and the shape of the individual utility curves. The paper identifies, clearly defines, and incorporates a variety of measures for which national data are readily available. This list is broader and less subjective when compared to other examples reported in the literature.