Integrating scenario planning and goal programming

This paper concerns the integration of goal programming and scenario planning as an aid to decision making under uncertainty. Goal programming as a methodology emphasises the resolution of conflict among criteria; scenario planning focuses on the treatment of uncertainty relating to future states of the world. Integrating the two methodologies is based on the simple formulation of a super-goal programme consisting of one scenario-specific goal program in each scenario. Issues relating to the structuring of the super-problem, aggregation both within and over scenarios, and the incorporation of probabilistic information are discussed.