A new product growth for model consumer durables (Frank M. Bass) with comments

A new product growth for model consumer durables (Frank M. Bass) with comments

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Article ID: iaor20073491
Country: United States
Volume: 50
Issue: 12supplement
Start Page Number: 1825
End Page Number: 1840
Publication Date: Dec 2004
Journal: Management Science
Authors:
Keywords: forecasting: applications
Abstract:

This paper is taken from a special supplement to the journal Management Science at the end of 50 years. The supplement reproduces 10 of the most important papers published in Management Science. Each paper is followed by a commentary by the author(s) and other scholars that offers insights into the background, creation, or subsequent impact of the paper. For this abstracting journal, the pagination is that of reproduction and comments. The original authors are included in the title, and the author of the commentary is given as the corresponding author. Bass added this comment. The paper that I authored and that was published in Management Science in 1969 has become widely known as the ‘Bass Model’. The model of the diffusion of new products and technologies developed in the paper is one of the most widely applied models in management science. It was especially gratifying for me to learn that INFORMS members have voted the ‘Bass Model’ paper as one of the Top 10 Most Influential Papers published in the 50-year history of Management Science in connection with the 50th anniversary of the journal. In this commentary on the paper I shall discuss some background and history of the development of the paper, the reasons why the model has been influential, some important extensions of the model, some examples of applications, and some examples of the frontiers of research involving the Bass Model. In the current period, in which there is much discussion about the marketing of applications of management science methods and practice, I hope that this commentary will be useful in providing insights about some of the properties of models that will be applied.

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