Revenue forecasting accuracy in Ohio local governments

Revenue forecasting accuracy in Ohio local governments

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Article ID: iaor20072675
Country: United States
Volume: 18
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 77
End Page Number: 99
Publication Date: Jan 2005
Journal: Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting and Financial Management
Authors:
Keywords: management, government, time series & forecasting methods
Abstract:

Fiscal stress has forced Ohio local governments to pay increasing attention to the importance of revenue forecasting. This paper identifies and examines two Ohio local governments' revenue forecasting approaches and forecasting accuracy using the case study method. It compares the differences in forecasting methods used. This research finds that informal forecasting methods are used by the county and formal forecasting methods are used by the city, that forecast accuracy varies by the level of revenue aggregation using the informal method, and that depending on the revenue source, simple methods are more appropriate than complex methods.

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