Article ID: | iaor20072675 |
Country: | United States |
Volume: | 18 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 77 |
End Page Number: | 99 |
Publication Date: | Jan 2005 |
Journal: | Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting and Financial Management |
Authors: | Beckett-Camarata Jane |
Keywords: | management, government, time series & forecasting methods |
Fiscal stress has forced Ohio local governments to pay increasing attention to the importance of revenue forecasting. This paper identifies and examines two Ohio local governments' revenue forecasting approaches and forecasting accuracy using the case study method. It compares the differences in forecasting methods used. This research finds that informal forecasting methods are used by the county and formal forecasting methods are used by the city, that forecast accuracy varies by the level of revenue aggregation using the informal method, and that depending on the revenue source, simple methods are more appropriate than complex methods.