A maintenance resources capacity estimator

Combat aircraft operations are usually constrained by limits on the logistics resources available. However, models that can compute the logistics resources necessary to support planned combat aircraft activity typically are custom applications that are data-intensive and difficult to use. This paper introduces a method for the Argentine Air Force (AAF) to estimate the mean number of aircraft that can be restored in a given time between consecutive sorties, given specified maintenance resources and base physical geometry. This maintenance resources evaluation technique (MRET) uses an analytical approach to estimate the mean and variance of aircraft unscheduled downtime. These parameters are then used in a Monte Carlo simulation of scheduled and unscheduled maintenance tasks necessary to prepare aircraft for the next sortie. When programmed in a spreadsheet, the MRET combines a high response speed with a moderately detailed scenario description, making the model suitable for the AAF.