The effect of battle circumstances on fitting Lanchester equations to the Battle of Kursk

A dearth of high-quality, detailed battle data has hindered the many efforts to use historical battles to answer the question: Is there a Lanchester law for aggregate attrition? Consequently, no consensus has emerged. This research addresses this question using the most detailed two-sided, time-phased, force-on-force battle data – the Kursk Data Base, built by the Dupuy Institute and the Center for Army Analysis. While only one battle, our findings indicate that the choice of Lanchester law is simply not that important. That is, substantially more of the variation in casualties during the Battle of Kursk is explained by the status of the forces considered and the phases of the battle than by the Lanchester variant used.