Will GASB 34 induce changes in local government forecasting practice? A preliminary investigation

Certain of GASB Statement 34's requirements might on their face induce an upgrading of local sector forecasting capacity as well as a reduction of tolerated forecast error. Results from our national survey of local and county finance officers suggest that respondents with graduate degrees who work in offices with forecasting software may respond to GASB 34 implementation in a manner consistent with this expectation. Others are unlikely to view the standard as a cue to enhance their forecast capacity at this early stage of rollout. Our results also suggest that the norm of revenue underforecasting is deep-seated and that survey results understate its magnitude. These results are a baseline; further experience with the GASB 34 may alter practitioner perception of need and lead to deployment of more advanced forecasting methodology and heightened expectation of forecast accuracy.