Article ID: | iaor20062781 |
Country: | United States |
Volume: | 3 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 16 |
End Page Number: | 32 |
Publication Date: | Mar 2006 |
Journal: | Decision Analysis |
Authors: | Smith James E., Bickel J. Eric |
Keywords: | search, programming: dynamic, decision |
In this paper, we develop a practical and flexible framework for evaluating sequential exploration strategies in the case where the exploration prospects are dependent. Our interest in this problem was motivated by an oil exploration problem, and our approach begins with marginal assessments for each prospect (e.g., what is the probability that the well is wet?) and pairwise assessments of the dependence between prospects (e.g., what is the probability that both wells