Development and application of an integrated water balance model to study the sensitivity of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area water availability scenario to climatic changes

This study investigates the water availability scenario for the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA) under future climatic changes. TMA, which depends largely on the adjacent Tone river for its water supply, suffers from water shortage almost once in 2–3 yr. A methodology was developed considering integrated approach to ascertain probable impact of climatic changes on the overall water availability along the Tone river and its impact on TMA. Historical trend in hydro-climatic characteristics of the Tone River basin was investigated at the first place to assess the changes and interrelationships. A deterministic water balance model was later developed, integrating natural hydrological balance as well as several water uses and river regulation effects. The natural water balance part of the model was tested for some hypothetical climate change scenarios to observe the sensitivity of the Tone river flow to climatic perturbations. For the worst scenario of precipitation and temperature changes, the unregulated Tone river flow was observed to be reduced by around 20–50%, varying over different months. After considering river regulation effects from reservoirs and diversion, the regulated flow was further analyzed based on some risk indices. Drought risk was observed to be increased significantly for the periods between April and July.