Finnish sawlog market under forest taxation reform

The stepwise transition in forest taxation from site productivity tax to taxation of profits from timber sales was one of the major institutional changes to impact Finnish non-industrial private forest owners in the 1990s. In this study the effect of the forest taxation reform on the aggregate supply of sawlogs was investigated using time series analysis and quarterly data. In particular, we estimated two simultaneous equations systems for the pine and the spruce sawlog markets. According to the results, the forest taxation reform strengthened the supply of spruce and pine sawlogs in the anticipatory stage of the taxation reform in 1992. Also during the fiscal transition period, which started in 1993, the supply effect of the taxation reform has clearly been positive. The strong own-price elasticity of sawlog supply found in this study indicates high sensitivity to actual and expected wood price changes in the determination of sawlog supply in Finland. Furthermore, the results indicate that the theoretical assumption of a competitive market is suitable for the Finnish sawlog market, but that separate analysis of pine and spruce sawlogs provides additional insights into market behaviour.