| Article ID: | iaor20051460 |
| Country: | United Kingdom |
| Volume: | 40 |
| Issue: | 6 |
| Start Page Number: | 205 |
| End Page Number: | 208 |
| Publication Date: | Dec 2004 |
| Journal: | Mathematics Today |
| Authors: | Baker Rose |
| Keywords: | behaviour, law & law enforcement, markov processes |
Under a simple model of speeding offences, the probability distribution of the time to being banned from driving as a result of speeding offences being caught on camera is studied. The UK policy is currently “4 strikes in 3 years and you are out”; this is analysed along with two proposals, of being banned after 6 minor offences or 2 major ones. The trouble with speed cameras is that the time to being banned for identical drivers is extremely variable. It is shown how far the proposed new policy ameliorates this problem. The analytic structure for the case of banning after 2 major offences is derived, and shows a rich and intriguing structure.