Modelling risk and uncertainty with the analytic hierarchy process

This paper proposes methods for modelling risk and uncertainty with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). We start by showing why benefit/risk ratios, as described in previous literature, might be an improper modelling approach. We then introduce prototypical case studies where risk plays a role in multicriteria decision making. These cases demonstrate how the AHP can be used to derive relative probabilities, multiple criteria outcome measures, risk criteria, and risk adjustment factors.