Integrating management judgement and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts

The complementary strengths that management judgement and statistical methods can bring to the forecasting process have been widely discussed. This paper reviews research on the effectiveness of methods that are designed to allow judgement and statistical methods to be integrated when short-term point forecasts are required. The application of both voluntary and mechanical integration methods are considered and conditions identified where the use of particular methods is appropriate, according to current research. While acknowledging the power of mechanical integration methods that exclude the judgemental forecaster from the integration process, the paper suggests that future research effort should focus on the design of forecasting support systems that facilitate voluntary integration.