The professional foul in football: Tactics and deterents

We demonstrate the use of a model calibrated using data from every 1999–2000 Premiership match to determine the circumstances under which a player ‘should’ commit a professional foul in order to benefit his team. The results are illustrated using two hypothetical matches, one between evenly balanced teams and one where one of the teams is much stronger than the other. These circumstances turn out to be wide-ranging and, in some cases, somewhat counterintuitive. The many drawbacks of the current system for punishing such fouls are discussed, and a simple remedy is proposed that would not only be much fairer to all involved but would also, at a stroke, render the professional foul virtually obsolete.