Measuring interdiction capabilities in the presence of anti-access strategies: Exploratory analysis to inform adaptive strategy for the Persian Gulf

This book discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an ‘early halt’ or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns. The authors emphasize exploratory analysis under massive uncertainty about political and military developments and about the detailed circumstances of conflict. The halt problem has been studied in war games and computer simulations, many of them dependent on official detailed databases and scenarios. Mission-system analysis, however, requires comprehensive exploratory analysis emphasizing breadth rather than depth, and confronting massive uncertainty rather than accepting standard assumptions. The book documents a specialized model used for ‘mission system analysis’, which helps identify critical enablers of early-halt capability: deployment; immediate command-control, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; ability to employ interdiction forces quickly; and weapon effectiveness.