Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: The consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: The consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor2002286
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 17
Issue: 2
Start Page Number: 119
End Page Number: 150
Publication Date: Jan 2001
Journal: System Dynamics Review
Authors: , ,
Keywords: simulation: applications
Abstract:

A system dynamics model of HIV/AIDS epidemiology is employed to simulate the effects of triple combination antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of HIV/AIDS. The epidemic data on homosexual men in the UK (1981–1998) have been used to fit the baseline model. The new combination therapies, which supplanted antiviral mono and dual therapy in 1996, are proving to be the most effective prophylaxis yet for halting viral replication in vivo, but many uncertainties still surround their use. A range of model-generated scenarios are created as a means of considering these uncertainties. Possible futures for the HIV/AIDS epidemic are constructed.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.