A ratings based Poisson model for World Cup soccer simulation

A ratings based Poisson model for World Cup soccer simulation

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Article ID: iaor20012419
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 51
Issue: 8
Start Page Number: 993
End Page Number: 998
Publication Date: Aug 2000
Journal: Journal of the Operational Research Society
Authors: ,
Keywords: forecasting: applications, education in OR
Abstract:

In this paper a method is suggested for predicting the distribution of scores in international soccer matches, treating each team's goals scored as independent Poisson variables dependent on the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) rating of each team, and the match venue. The results of a Poisson regression to estimate parameters for this model were used to simulate matches played during the 1998 World Cup tournament. For the model to be a more effective predictor, some manual adjustments must be made to the ratings data. The predictions of the model were placed on a web page to create interest in applications of mathematics, and proved popular with the general public.

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