Risk management of an agricultural investment in a developing country utilising the computer aided simulation for project appraisal and review program

This paper describes how the software program Computer Aided Simulation for Project Appraisal and Review can be used to determine the commercial viability of an agricultural investment. A case study involving the purchase of a farm and subsequent crop production of tobacco and paprika over a ten-year operation period in a developing country is presented. Initially a base estimate is prepared and a risk analysis performed. Risks are then mitigated and the risk analysis is performed again. The results of the risk analysis can then be used as part of the business plan.