The effect of the use of improved climate forecasts on variable costs, input usage, and production

Three economic models varying in aggregation, crops analyzed, and regions modeled are used to determine potential impacts of the use of improved climate forecasts on agriculture. Different regions and crops both within a region and between regions may be affected differently. Expected values of variables such as costs, yields, input usage, etc., may increase or decrease with the use of improved climate forecasts. Further, current changes in the US Federal Farm Program may increase the value of improved climate forecasts because of the elimination of most planting restrictions, acreage reduction, and disaster assistance. The addition of catastrophic crop insurance appears to decrease the value of improved forecasts.