A belief-based account of decision under uncertainty

A belief-based account of decision under uncertainty

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor2000298
Country: United States
Volume: 44
Issue: 7
Start Page Number: 879
End Page Number: 895
Publication Date: Jul 1998
Journal: Management Science
Authors: ,
Keywords: decision theory, risk, decision: studies
Abstract:

We develop a belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. This model predicts decisions under uncertainty from (i) judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects evaluated uncertain prospects and assessed the probability of the respective events. Study 1 involved the 1995 professional basketball playoffs; Study 2 involved the movement of economic indicators in a simulated economy. The results of both studies are consistent with the belief-based account, but violate the partition inequality implied by the classical theory of decision under uncertainty.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.