Sustainable trade relations in a global economy

This paper illustrates how experimentation with a system dynamics model may be used to determine the terms of trade for meeting long-term contentions for sustaining global economic relations and environment. It has two parts, a review of empirical evidence that describes the trends in the volume and the nature of international trade over the past decade, and an exploratory analysis of their implications for the emergent contentions for global development and environment. The first part draws on secondary data and literature. The second part attempts to reinterpret in the global context an existing model the author developed originally to understand valuation and income distribution processes in a dualist economic system within a developing country. The exploratory nature of the second part should be accented since the model it draws on was developed for a different purpose and the analysis of this paper only addresses its relevance to the global context without modifying any component of the model structure; hence it has some limitations. The original model focused, however, on the determinants of value accrued to the parties contributing to the production process, which is relevant both to income distribution within a country and the transfer of value and environmental costs through trade between countries. The experimental process adopted in the paper is seen to be of value for designing global agreements committing concerned parties to complex roles.