Article ID: | iaor19983133 |
Country: | United Kingdom |
Volume: | 16 |
Issue: | 3 |
Start Page Number: | 165 |
End Page Number: | 176 |
Publication Date: | May 1997 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Remus William, Griggs Ken, O'Connor Marcus |
Keywords: | judgement |
Prior studies of judgemental time-series forecasting have found that people have problems with downward-sloping series. This laboratory-based study presents a controlled experiment of series direction and it investigates the problems of changing trends. Results confirm that people have significant difficulties in dealing with downward-sloping series and that behaviour is consistent with a general tendency to anticipate that downward series will reverse themselves. There is a significantly less tendency to do so for upward series. Results are discussed in terms of systematic and unsystematic error.