Going up–going down: How good are people at forecasting trends and changes in trends?

Going up–going down: How good are people at forecasting trends and changes in trends?

0.00 Avg rating0 Votes
Article ID: iaor19983133
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 16
Issue: 3
Start Page Number: 165
End Page Number: 176
Publication Date: May 1997
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: , ,
Keywords: judgement
Abstract:

Prior studies of judgemental time-series forecasting have found that people have problems with downward-sloping series. This laboratory-based study presents a controlled experiment of series direction and it investigates the problems of changing trends. Results confirm that people have significant difficulties in dealing with downward-sloping series and that behaviour is consistent with a general tendency to anticipate that downward series will reverse themselves. There is a significantly less tendency to do so for upward series. Results are discussed in terms of systematic and unsystematic error.

Reviews

Required fields are marked *. Your email address will not be published.