Two models for assessing a federal environmental health policy: The case of radon in US homes

The US Environmental Protection Agency's strategy for reducing the public health risks of radon exposure depends largely on convincing the public to undertake testing and mitigation. In this context, important questions arise as to whether public response is likely to be high and thus whether changes in mortality are likely to be substantial. To explore these questions, we develop two models of the ‘demographics’ of radon exposure in the United States. The first of these explores the sensitivity of projected mortality over the next 100 years to important policy variables such as testing and mitigation rates. The second model takes the analysis down to the level of the individual and estimates the distribution of risk across the population and the costs and benefits of mitigation accruing to a person who may change residence several times during his or her life. Our results show that realistic policy scenarios lead to moderate changes in mortality and that the cost–benefit calculation of the individual is unlikely to lead to high levels of public response. The results support the idea of a more focused public policy.