An approach to the simulation of bus passenger journey times for the journey to work

Bus passenger journey times in the morning peak period are simulated. Using estimates of the distribution of journey times the paper measures service performance by the amount of slack time required to reach a destination by a particular time with given probability. The effects of two influences on performance are analysed; seasonal fluctuations in demand and changes resulting from de-regulation. It is found that in some cases significant amounts of additional must be allowed for the journey if on-time arrival is to be assured with high probability. Wait and total travel time distributions are highly sensitive to the change in demand examined. The effect of de-regulation is found to be less marked with a slight reduction in performance identified.