Article ID: | iaor19961942 |
Country: | Netherlands |
Volume: | 12 |
Issue: | 1 |
Start Page Number: | 155 |
End Page Number: | 161 |
Publication Date: | Jan 1996 |
Journal: | International Journal of Forecasting |
Authors: | Goodwin Paul, Belton Valerie |
Keywords: | judgemental forecasting |
The analytical hierarchy process has been proposed as a method for improving judgmental forecasts. This paper argues that some applications of the method are ill founded because they involve the inappropriate weighting of the factors which will influence the forecast variable and do not permit the modelling of situations where these factors operate to their fullest extent at the same time. Modifications to the method are proposed.