Remarks on the application of the analytic hierarchy process to judgmental forecasting

Remarks on the application of the analytic hierarchy process to judgmental forecasting

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Article ID: iaor19961942
Country: Netherlands
Volume: 12
Issue: 1
Start Page Number: 155
End Page Number: 161
Publication Date: Jan 1996
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting
Authors: ,
Keywords: judgemental forecasting
Abstract:

The analytical hierarchy process has been proposed as a method for improving judgmental forecasts. This paper argues that some applications of the method are ill founded because they involve the inappropriate weighting of the factors which will influence the forecast variable and do not permit the modelling of situations where these factors operate to their fullest extent at the same time. Modifications to the method are proposed.

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