Swords into plowshares: Some propositions on the prospects of peace dividends

This essay offers a number of propositions about the size, pace, and distribution of defense cutbacks and about the conversion of military resources to civilian purposes. The authors argue that the prospects for a peace dividend in the aftermath of the cold war are clouded by substantial political incentives and economic interests that may oppose or retard military retrenchment. They also contend that the resource savings from any military retrenchment may not necessarily be reallocated fully and efficiently to produce gains in civilian production and productivity. Such gains are apt to take some time to materialize whereas the political costs and socio-economic disruption caused by lower military expenditures are likely to be felt more immediately. Indeed, given their different social institutions, political cultures, and economic structures, different countries may be expected to pursue alternative policy offsets that accompany any defense cutback, and they may be expected to encounter different conversion problems and derive differnt costs and benefits from efforts to convert swords into plowshares. The authors conclude with an agenda for future research.