Classifying and controlling errors in forecasting using multiple criteria goal programming

Classifying and controlling errors in forecasting using multiple criteria goal programming

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Article ID: iaor19951957
Country: United Kingdom
Volume: 21
Issue: 9
Start Page Number: 979
End Page Number: 989
Publication Date: Nov 1994
Journal: Computers and Operations Research
Authors: ,
Keywords: programming: multiple criteria
Abstract:

This paper is concerned with the use of multiple criteria goal programming as a method of combining forecasts. The forecasts to be combined can come from a variety of forecasting techniques as well as from a variety of forecasting lead times. The model provided in this paper provides a generalization of previous work in the use of mathematical programming in combining forecasts. The generalizations are of two types; an error classification scheme such that the decision-maker can prioritize error types, and an error tolerance zone such that errors that fall within the prescribed tolerance zone may have no impact on the final forecasting model. The resultant structure affords considerably more flexibility in developing a model that matches the priorities deemed important to the decision maker given the forecasting information available.

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