A study of forecasting of competitive products

When a new innovative product is put into market as a counterpart to traditional products, we have much interest in the long term effect on the total demand. Though the growth and decline of the new and the traditional products depend on the future market surroundings and the subsequent policies that may arise, quantitative information of the effects is indispensable to long term strategy. This paper treats forecasting of long term mutual effect of competitive tire products on the total demands. The model is based on a stochastic process, and contains characteristics of the products, sales policies, price policies and future market surroundings. As a numerical example, an effect toward the future total demand according to sales policies to automobile maker is considered. [In Japanese.]